| Duane L. Cronk, Publisher | THE ANGWIN REPORTER |
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About Angwin...
Angwin is a community of about 2500 residents on Howell Mountain. We are in a coastal range of northern California, about 70 mi. north of San Francisco.
The Village ranges from 1600 to 2200 ft. elevation, overlooking the scenic Napa Valley. It is surrounded by vineyards and forests.
Many Angwin residents work for Pacific Union College, a liberal arts college with a national reputation, or the nearby St. Helena Hospital.
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Most Recent Big Jump in Values
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This most recent surge in values began in 2001 when the median in Angwin leaped upward from $295,000 to $395,000, and jumped again in 2002 to $475,000. Then, the medians for 2003 and 2004 levelled off with values of $490,000 and $500,000 respectively.
Of course, this is a highly inaccurate guage of what really happened. If you are tracking trends by just median prices, you would draw the conclusion that 1) we actually saw a unexplainable sharp increase of 61% in just two years, and 2) that median values then just flattened out for the last three years at $475,000, $490,000, and $500,000. That is not what happened in other areas which saw a sharp increase in values at the same time and under the same economic conditions.
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Median Values Deceptive
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This illustrates how the median prices in a small community do not reflect true trends in their property values. The median price in a small sampling like Angwin can be trusted as a general indicator of trends ONLY over a long period of time.
One such long-range statistic is that over the past 20 years the Angwin median price has risen by 400%. That averages out to an average of 8% a year. This use of the median price over a long period is not too bad for Angwin because it is compatible with the record of 7.4% experienced throughout all of California during that period.
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The Short Term
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For the short term, I favor the larger sampling of all property sales in Napa County as a better guage. Those statistics indicate that property values in a total of 1100 sales rose an average of 16% in 2001, 16% in 2002, 18% in 2003, and 16% in 2004. for a total of 83% gain in four years.
It is true that values vary significantly from community to community in the County, but the Countywide trend is probably a more realistic scenario of what is happening in Angwin.
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The Million-Dollar Houses in Angwin We have seen a number of fine homes built on the outskirts of the village, with dramatic views of Napa Valley and large acreages which have been planted into vineyards. These are the properties now selling for more than $1 million and driving the average Angwin price upward into new territory.
It wasn't until 1998 that Angwin saw its first million-dollar sale. It was a 4300-square foot house on 40 acres, with a splendid view. Since then, there have been 19.
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Recent Articles
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8/03/2005
7/27/2005
7/10/2005
6/19/2005
6/12/2005
5/15/2005
4/22/2005
Water Company Board Halts Negotiations for Purchase of Hospital Water System
Background on Adam Pease
Firefighters Train then Burn House to Ground
The Florence Howlett Story
4/10/2005
Angwin Water Company President Rings Up "No Sale."
Muth Spells Out Problems Facing Angwin Water Company
3/28/2005
3/24/2005
3/6/2005
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Flash Bulletin . . .
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A dead scrub jay infected with West Nile virus has been discovered in Angwin and reported to the health authorities. People, get rid of any standing water where mosquitos may breed or report such conditions to the Napa County Mosquito Abatement people (Thanx to Michelle Ojedo for this report.).
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Are we at the peak?
REAL ESTATE BOOM IN ANGWIN
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Properties in Angwin are still priced sky-high and for three years sales have been skipping merrily up the chart. We saw 28 sales in 2003 and 34 in 2004. A bit above the average of 29 per year over the past 20 years.
In the boom years of 1989 and 1990, sales hit 44 and 40. But we have seen sales slip to as few as 16 several times, so last year’s 34 is just fine. Yes, this is a hot market.
The first six months of this year saw 16 sales recorded in Angwin, a repeat of the sales pace in 2004. What happened in 2004, the last fulll year. 34 properties were sold. Prices ranged from $144,000 for little house on Toyon to $2,350,000 for a large home with 20 acres on Cold Springs Road. The median price was $499,000.
What is a bubble?
Is the sharp climb in values really a bubble, a bubble that will burst? The word “bubble” has been used indiscriminately, particularly by newspaper reporters who make up their own definitions.
The definition by economists is: A bubble is a bubble when prices climb 30% in a three-year period and then drop 15% over the next five-year period. In short, you won’t know if it was a bubble that "burst" until eight years have passed. Ancient history.
A lot of so-called “ bubbles” never burst. Prices may surge way up, but do not collapse enough to be called a “burst.” Still, the Federal Reserve Board has warned that "shady" interest-only loans - and there many of them - could produce problems for borrowers a few years from now, with numerous foreclosures and a resulting fall in market values.
We have been through this before. And not too long ago. We saw a rapid run-up of values in Angwin in the late 1980’s reaching a median value of $180,000 in 1990. Then values floundered around for 10 years, but did gradually rise - in fits and starts. The median finally reached $295,000 in 2000, for a gain of 56% over a 10-year period.
(This is not a great return in investment terms, considering that inflation probably accounted for 30% during that period.)
So that really big rally culminating in 1990 never did burst. Values saw minor declines before levelling off and then resuming a slow, unexciting climb.
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Putah Creek . . A Meandering Thing
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I am intrigued by Putah Creek. It seems to be everywhere, or at least on most of my favorite drives. You cross it driving North. You cross it going East. Where does it come from? Where does it go?
Putah seeps out of springs high on the slopes of Cobb Mountain, in Lake County, fumbles its way through Middletown and stumbles generally eastward into Lake Berryessa in Napa County. When it leaves the spillway at the Berryessa dam, it forms the crooked border between Yolo and Solano Counties and ends in Sacramento County at what the map calls the "Putah Creek Sinks" in the wetlands south of Sacramento. A meandering thing.
You can find web sites devoted to boating on Putah. And on fishing.
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Running full and deep in Yolo County
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Just below the dam at Lake Berryessa
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In places, it looks like a miniature lush jungle river.
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Fly fishermen love its shallows.
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