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Homeowners around the country have been reading bad news about the real estate market for several years. And it isn't getting better. Not even in Angwin.
Only 10 to 12 properties have sold here each year for the past six years.
To comprehend how bad that is, here are a couple of statistics. For several years in the late 1980's sales jumped to more than 40 sales a year. The average of Angwin sales over a period of 24 years is 29 sales a year.
As in other communities, some Angwin sales these days have been foreclosures or "short sales," transactions in which the house has been dumped for less than the debt on the property. People have just had to walk away from the indebtedness.
(In Ireland, where homeowners are walking away from over-indebted houses, they are walking away from cars as well. Airport officials have been wondering why so many cars have been just sitting in their parking lots for days. They discovered that they had just been abandoned by immigrant workers who had lost their jobs and just caught a plane back to Poland.)
Angwin property values have declined just like almost everywhere else. A few years ago we were seeing properties sell for more than $1 million. Very few under $500,000. That has changed.
In 2009, there was one $1-million sale, but the next drop was to $650,000, and there were four sales under $425,000.
In 2010, there was one sale for $980,000 but half of the sales were under $425,000. The median price dropped from $562,000 to $402,000.
So far in 2011, the highest sale has been for $800,000. All seven of the others have been for under $475,000.
The forecast is that property values will be in the basement for several more years. Values may drop even lower. The banks are still holding 2 million foreclosed properties which they will sell low. As they dump them onto the market other properties will find it hard to compete. And unemployed people can't buy homes, anyway.
The optimistic nationwide view is that when the economy recovers, America will see a pent-up demand come to life. Experts believe that values are currently down to what they were in 2002. before the boom-and-bust since then, but ordinarily property values will average some modest appreciation over the long haul.
The odd thing is, we did not see the kind of boom in sales which others did, but the drop in sales is certainly real. Something going on here in the fundamental demographics?
Meanwhile, here's a 24-year history of Angwin sales:
1988 49 sales The median price was $140,000 1989 44 sales 1990 40 sales 1991 19 sales 1992 25 sales 1993 17 sales 1994 25 sales 1995 21 sales 1996 29 sales 1997 25 sales 1998 32 sales 1999 36 sales 2000 38 sales 2001 25 sales 2002 20 sales 2003 28 sales 2004 34 sales 2005 22 sales 2006 11 sales 2007 10 sales 2008 12 sales 2009 10 sales 2010 10 sales 2011 8 sales to date Median price $400,000
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