| Duane L. Cronk, Publisher | THE ANGWIN REPORTER | Dec 31, 2006 |
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About Angwin...
Angwin is a community of about 2500 residents on Howell Mountain. We are in a coastal range of northern California, about 70 mi. north of San Francisco.
The Village ranges from 1600 to 2200 ft. elevation, overlooking the scenic Napa Valley. It is surrounded by vineyards and forests.
Many Angwin residents work for Pacific Union College, a liberal arts college with a national reputation, or the nearby St. Helena Hospital.
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12/4/2006
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3/3/2006
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An End to Speculation
College/Triad Plan Expected Soon
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Pacific Union College and its developer, the Triad Corporation, are expected to reveal their plans for development of 885 acres of college lands into residential and commercial construction sometime in January.
The village of Angwin has been anticipating the plan for months, its fears fueled by speculation and lack of specific information. A telephone poll, presumably sponsored by the developer, has asked residents how they felt about 800 new housing units.
The College sent out a letter recently asserting that its needs are critical and that the sale of its land assets will go a long way toward stabilizing it financially. The Save Rural Angwin committee, representing residents of the village, responded with a letter questioning the needs, and deploring the loss of woodlands and agricultural lands.
No matter how many units will be proposed, it is safe to predict that villagers will oppose the project. Angwinites enjoy the small-town amenities, and do not anticipate that a significant increase in housing units, will enhance their quality of life.
The map below shows in blue the acreage surrounding the campus which would be sold to Triad for residential subdivisions and commercial development. The yellow line is Howell Mountain Road. The airport would not be included in the sale. The segment at the lower left along Howell Mountain Road would be devoted to new commercial, it is reported. The Nature Preserve - at the far end of the College's 1800 acres - would be kept in its present primitive state.
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The Real Estate Picture in Angwin
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Like a number of other communities, Angwin is seeing an "adjustment" in property values, and in sales. We present this newsletter from Angwin Valley View Properties, recently mailed to a small number of Angwin residents.
What a change! A year ago, Angwin was enjoying a real estate boom. Everything was up, up, and away.
Today, State and national newspapers are reporting falling prices, longer times on the market, increasing foreclosures, declining values. Look at some recent statistics.
The number of houses and condos that sold in September in the whole Bay Area fell dramatically from 11,205 last September to 7,907. The San Francisco Chronicle last week cited the example below:
"After five open houses, a $40,000 price cut, and three months on the market, Leslie Nakajima hasnt had a single offer on her three-bedroom house in Potrero Hill."
The median price of a Napa County home declined 6.5% in September. It dropped 8% in neighboring Sonoma County. That is a lot of loss in just one month, even if just on paper.
Mortgage defaults are on the increase. 2910 homeowners in the Bay Area couldnt make their mortgage payments in a recent quarter, a 37% increase over the previous quarter. Many of these properties could go into foreclosure and onto the market at reduced prices.
The locals cant buy. Fewer and fewer Californians can afford to buy a house. The States Department of Housing reported recently that We have the second-worst affordability rate in the nation. Only 11% of California families can afford to buy a house today.
"On the verge of collapse?" Financial Consultant John Talbott lays out all the bad news in his new book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble. Speculators buying houses not to live in, but to flip, creative financing like low interest or no interest loans, and other gimmicks has made the housing market, says Talbott, a house of cards on the verge of collapse.
What about Angwin?
As we have frequently noted, Angwin real estate is more stable. Our values have climbed significantly in recent years, but they have not exploded as in St. Helena, where the median price is now $1 million. Our bubble will not collapse dramatically.
But Angwin is not immune to what happens statewide. Buyers will be attracted to beauti-ful homes in other places at reduced prices. The competition will get tougher. Some price reductions, fewer offers, longer times on the market. Back to normaL
Putting that all into perspective, todays seller will still realize a very hefty profit. The value of his asset has doubled in the past five years. A good time to sell? Yes, indeed. Grab the money and run.
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